Dodgers Back to Big Market Operations - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Dodgers Back to Big Market Operations Stuck

Posted on August 27, 2012 at 10:18 AM.

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A year ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers players were worried whether or not their payroll checks would clear. This year, they have seen new ownership come in, talk about bringing the Dodgers back into the consciousness of Major League Baseball, and then actually do what they promised. The Dodgers have spent most of the season either leading or competing for the National League West Division crown. They began the season with Matt Kemp obliterating baseballs and a pitching staff that had to carry a team full of lineup inefficiencies. Then, Kemp went down with a hamstring injury. The Dodgers endured, but fell behind the San Francisco Giants for the division lead.

During that time, the official transfer of ownership power was finalized as the Guggenheim Group was finally put into place. Magic Johnson provided the marquee name for the group, but new team president Stan Kasten would be the central figure in Baseball Operations. Kasten and General Manager Ned Colletti worked quickly by signing Andre Ethier to five year, $85 million contract extension that doesn�t even begin until next year. While the contract seems a bit much, it was a signal that the new ownership group meant to really make the Dodgers a large market team.

The signal became a reality when the Dodgers acquired Hanley Ramirez and his remaining three years and $46.5 million contract. They also acquired Shane Victorino to man left field for the rest of the season. Ramirez was a marquee addition and has hit .296/.354/.530 with 6 home runs and 31 RBI in 29 games since coming to Los Angeles. His addition, given the Giants� loss of Melky Cabrera for the rest of the season, might have been enough to overtake the three game lead that the Giants held.

But, large market teams don�t just add a little. The new ownership group knew that if the Dodgers were going to win this year, they needed more. They knew that if they were going to overtake the Angels as the state�s most attractive team, they needed to do more. Los Angeles is a star town. Since Frank McCourt took over the team, the Dodgers haven�t been that team. They had some success, but McCourt ultimately didn�t have the funds to sustain a large market team.

With Matt Kemp missing so much time, Andre Ethier also missing time, and just acquiring Ramirez, the Dodgers offense has been an issue all season. They rank 12th in runs scored, 15th in home runs, and 13th in OPS. Their deep pitching staff has compensated for most of the season, but if the Dodgers are serious about getting to a World Series out of a National League that doesn�t have a dominant team, they had to do more.

One of their biggest issues was first base. James Loney and Juan Rivera have formed a platoon that ranks last in the National League in both slugging percentage and on base percentage. By WAR standards, Dodgers first basemen were at minus-1.

With Boston�s season more famous for controversies and team unrest, the Red Sox, like every other team, put some of their players on waivers. It is customary for teams to put their players, even star players, on waivers to gage interest either for an immediate trade or for the winter. Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett were both claimed by the Dodgers.

The negotiating began.

The final deal included Gonzalez, Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto going to Los Angeles in exchange for Rubby De la Rosa, Allen Webster, Ivan DeJesus, Jerry Sands, and James Loney.

In an effort to win this season, the Dodgers have acquired over a quarter of a billion dollars in salary commitments. Detractors may say that the Dodgers are risking a dead payroll considering that Josh Beckett is on the downside and Carl Crawford just underwent Tommy John Surgery. But, this deal was really all about Adrian Gonzalez and the type of upgrade he gives the to Dodgers lineup.

His upgrade is significant. The 30 year old first baseman started 2012 quite poorly. He�s been hot in the second half, but a perceived �off year� still reads at .300/.343/.469 with 37 doubles, 15 home runs and 86 RBI. While his 2.8 WAR is a career low, that is a three win upgrade for the Dodgers. His presence gives protection to Matt Kemp while also making the Dodgers lineup more like an American League lineup.

With Mark Ellis and Shane Victorino likely handling the top two spots (with Nick Punto and Luis Cruz in the mix too), the Dodgers three through six read: Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez, and Ethier. With AJ Ellis--who was the number three hitter while Kemp and Ethier were out--hitting seventh, the Dodgers now have the deepest lineup in their division. And, they have a lineup that stacks up with any other in the National League. Matt Kemp is still their best hitter, but Adrian Gonzalez is clearly number two with Ramirez not far behind. Gonzalez�s presence puts Andre Ethier in a more appropriate role for his skillset.

As for star power, Gonzalez homered in his first at bat as a Dodger. Vin Scully made the call. That was the perfect introduction to Los Angeles.

Most look at Josh Beckett�s acquisition as collateral damage for getting an elite first baseman. It is true that Beckett has pitched poorly since last September. It is true that Beckett has been in the headlines for all of the wrong reasons. But, it is not true that Beckett is done as being a quality Major League pitcher.

The 32 year old right hander is having a season similar to his 2010 season, which was the worst season of his career. In 21 starts this season, he is 5-11 with a 5.23 ERA. In 127.1 innings, he is averaging 9.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a career low 6.6 K/9. It looks ugly, especially for a pitcher who has two years and $31.5 million left on his contract.

But, he is just a season removed from finishing with a 2.89 ERA 6.8 H/9, and 8.2 K/9. His 2012 FIP is 4.27, slightly better than a league average pitcher. A move to the National League to one of the best pitcher�s parks, and in one of the best pitching park divisions will help Beckett, who no longer has to lead a staff because of Clayton Kershaw�s presence. During his career, Beckett elicits swings and misses on pitches thrown in the strike zone 12.5 percent of the time. This season, he is making batters miss 11.5 percent of the time. His velocity is down, but he is still throwing 91 MPH, more than enough to compete. He will be overpaid as a middle of the rotation pitcher, but he can be above average in the National League.

The surprising addition was Carl Crawford. He may turn out to be the second most important addition, despite having zero impact this season. Crawford just had Tommy John Surgery last week and will be hard pressed to make it back at the start of Spring Training next season. He also has $102 million left on his deal which runs through 2017. But, Crawford�s game is predicated on speed rather than power. The surgery should not hamper his game and once he gets reacclimated, the Dodgers have their left fielder and top of the order hitter for the next four seasons. Crawford wasn�t a fit in Boston from the beginning, but Los Angeles will be better for a few reasons. He doesn�t have to be the star; he can simply play without the expectations of his large contract. Kemp, Kershaw, Ramirez, and Gonzalez take care of that.

In a couple of years, this trade may very well be remembered more for Crawford�s acquisition.

Nick Punto will find plenty of at bats as the team�s utility infielder. As a switch hitter and a player who can field at every infield position, Punto will have a role for a team that just lost Jerry Hairston Jr. for the season.

The Dodgers do take a big risk with all of the payroll commitments. There is a chance that all of this goes very wrong. But, big market teams don�t think like that. Big market teams can add payroll because winning costs. The Dodgers are now a large market organization. Money didn�t matter, talent did. Now Manager Don Mattingly has a formidable lineup to go along with his formidable pitching staff. His team now has the most talent in the National League.

With ownership making good on the promise to spend, there is now an expectation to win. The Dodgers are now a championship caliber team. Having a good finish will not be good enough. Mattingly now faces that expectation for the first time during his brief managerial career. But, he�s lived through that as a coach in New York. The core of the Dodgers have playoff experience.

Now, they have the necessary pieces to make a legitimate World Series run. That couldn�t be said just two months ago. The Guggenheim group is leveraging the market, new television revenue, and an opportunity in remaking the Dodgers quickly and boldly. The team now operates as a large market team. Now the players have to go and win like one. And, then they will have to deal with those expectations every season.

What a difference a year makes.